Als seek return to win column in clash with Tiger-Cats

Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Alouettes continue to compete without the services of quarterback Anthony Calvillo as the team challenges the Hamilton Tiger-Cats this weekend at Ivor Wynne Stadium.

Calvillo, who suffered a chest injury several weeks ago and sat out last week's loss to British Columbia, says he is on the mend and feels better, but the coaching staff has decided that sitting the superstar signal-caller would be the in best interest of everyone involved, especially with the second half of the season being so critical.

With Calvillo taking a seat again the Als are set to go with a backup, but instead of letting Chris Leak handle the action it will be Adrian McPherson who himself is fresh off the injured list after getting cleared to play following a torn MCL suffered during training camp.

McPherson had some solid efforts for Montreal late last season and finished 2009 with six touchdown passes and a completion percentage of 68.1. More importantly, as long as he is not tentative in the pocket and slowed too much by a knee brace, his mobility at the position is more than the team is used to with Calvillo. McPherson gained 351 yards on the ground, averaging close to six yards per attempt a year ago and that's something the Tiger-Cats have to plan for, even if the Montreal coaches want to limit how many times McPherson puts himself in harm's way.

Last week the Als hosted British Columbia, one of the weakest clubs in the league with just a single win at the time, but it just so happened that the Lions picked that week to put together a strong effort on both sides of the ball to come away with the overwhelming 38-17 victory at Montreal. Leak started at quarterback for the Als, hitting 15-of-27 passes for 135 yards, but he was sacked three times and intercepted twice, prompting the team to insert Ricky Santos.

Santos, a former Walter Payton Award winner, stepped in and converted 10-of-12 passes for 93 yards and a pair of majors, but by then the help was too little, too late for a Montreal squad that lost for the second time in the last three outings and is just hanging on to first place in the Eastern Division over both Hamilton and Toronto which enter this week with identical records at 5-4.

As for those Tiger-Cats, winners of three of their four home games this season and a solid 5-2 within the division, they managed to take care of the Toronto Argonauts last week by a final of 28-13 at home, even though the visitors held them to a paltry 34 yards rushing on 14 attempts. While the run game was stalling, Hamilton turned to Kevin Glenn to get them through and he didn't disappoint as he hit on 27-of-33 passes for 313 yards and a score, shaking off an interception and a sack along the way.

Defense was a mixed bag for Hamilton as the group allowed Cleo Lemon to light up the airwaves for 350 yards, but at the same time the Tiger-Cats held the opposing gunslinger without a major, sacked him three times and also picked off a trio of passes.

Aside from making interceptions, Hamilton's pass defense is one of the weakest in the league at the moment, allowing opponents to complete 65.8 percent of their attempts, a mark that is second-to-last behind only Toronto (70 percent) which has had trouble stopping everyone this year. Were it not for the three INTs last week by Hamilton, the group would be even further off the pace in the league given that they are bringing up the rear in that department with a mere seven interceptions through nine games. Nevertheless, Hamilton is still third in the league at the moment in terms of turnover margin with a plus four.

Ahead of the Tiger-Cats in the turnover department is Montreal which is a plus eight, mainly because Calvillo has been so careful with his throws this season and has but three picks in 288 attempts. Unfortunately for the Als, they'll have to wait at least one more week to get Calvillo's magic arm back in the lineup.

The loss of Calvillo against BC shouldn't have brought down the Als, but maybe the Lions saw the opportunity to score a huge victory and took advantage of the situation. Even though McPherson is coming off the injured list and is somewhat inexperienced, at this juncture he gives the Alouettes their best chance at winning, despite what Santos was able to accomplish in mop-up duty last week. Unfortunately for the signal-callers available for the Als this weekend, not one of them has yet to even attempt a pass against Hamilton and that can't be a good omen.

Montreal's lack of experience at the QB spot against Hamilton might also mean the Tiger-Cats won't be ready for what the Als throw at them this time around. It should also give Avon Cobourne reason to think he might gets his hands on the ball more for Montreal as well, after gaining just 57 yards on 13 attempts last week. One of the most dominant runners in the CFL a year ago, Cobourne is currently seventh in the league with just 460 yards and three TDs, averaging less than five yards per attempt.

With respect to the all-time series between these two clubs, Montreal owns an 84-74-7 in the regular season dating back to 1950. The Alouettes have taken five in a row against Hamilton and 13 of the last 14 encounters, including a 37-14 romp in Montreal back in July.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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