Breeders' Cup 2011 is right around the corner

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The richest weekend in racing comes our way at Churchill Downs this weekend as the BC Classic highlights 15 total Breeders' Cup races The $5 million Classic pits the filly Havre de Grace against last year's two-year-old champion Uncle Mo and 10 possible upsetters.

Havre de Grace has lost just once this year - by a nose to Blind Luck in the 1 1/4-mile Delaware Handicap. Her only real threat comes in the form of So You Think, who will be performing in his fourth race in just over two months. The son of High Chaparral has won nine of his 13 starts over the last two years, including victories this season in the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes, as well as a fourth-place finish in the Arc de Triomphe.

Uncle Mo has looked fabulous since returning to the races but he is a question mark at 10-furlongs.

Look for either Havre de Grace or So You Think to win the Classic with To Honor and Serve holding on for third.

Six of the 15 races will be on Friday, Nov. 4 beginning with the fifth race on the card - the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint.

Secret Circle was installed as the 6-5 favorite after two straight wins by a combined 12 1/2-lengths. The Bob Baffert-trained two-year-old showed he can rate when he sat off the two speeds in his last start and should dominate this weak field.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf event is highly contentious that is sure to produce a longshot winner. The two expected favorites - Elusive Kate and Somali Lemonade - have lost just one race between them. However, the former will be making her first start in North America while the latter starts from post 14.

The choice here is Dayatthespa - runner-up in the Natalma Stakes on the weeds at Woodbine in her last appearance.

The Filly and Mare Sprint is next with Turbulent Descent set as the morning- line favorite. The three-year-old hasn't raced since early August, which might be cause for concern since she has never started off a layoff this long.

I lean to a pair of four-year-olds. One is the possible second choice while the other is one of five 20-1 shots on the morning line.

Since finishing second in this race last year, Switch has yet to finish out of the money despite only two victories. Her recent third-place effort in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes should propel her in the right direction come Friday.

Tanda has also finished in the money in her last four starts with only one winner's circle appearance. Trainer Mike Mitchell prepped her for this on the grass so expect a solid performance.

The Juvenile Fillies is another wide-open affair but the favorites should have the edge. Weemissfrankie is on the list of three undefeated potential winners that also includes Grace Hall and the probable favorite - My Miss Aurelia.

Look for a couple of fillies to run with My Miss Aurelia early on, which will soften her up for the late coming charge of Weemissfrankie.

The Filly and Mare Turf features a pair of foreign fillies - the undefeated Nahrain and Announce. However, Stacelita will more than likely be favored after back-to-back victories in the Flower Bowl and Beverly D.

The choice here is Dubawi Heights. She has lost only once this year, a second- place finish to Stacelita on a yielding turf course at Arlington Park. There's not much speed in the race so look for her to control the pace and hang on for the gate-to-wire victory.

The final Friday event is the $2 million Ladies' Classic. With Havre de Grace running in the Classic, there really isn't a single standout in the field. The top pick is Ultra Blend, who will be making her first start at nine-furlongs. She is ultra-consistent with six straight first or second-place finishes.

A pair of pre-Breeders' Cup selections for Friday are Katz My Song in race two and the John Sadler-trained Gladding in race three.

BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

The Marathon opens up Saturday's Breeders' Cup card and the choice here is Giant Oak.

The Juvenile Turf follows with State of Play taking on the role as morning- line favorite. However, the two-year-old, trained by Graham Motion, was saddled with the 14 post. In what should be a wide open race, take a shot with Fantastic Song, who ran third in the Pilgrim Stakes over a very soft turf course at Belmont Park six weeks after breaking his maiden at Saratoga.

Big Drama looks to make it two straight Sprint wins but this time he comes in with only one prep since mid-January. Nevertheless, he is the class of a race that is lacking in quality horses. Amazombie will be his main competition.

Chamberlain Bridge tries for a repeat in the Turf Sprint but the seven-year- old gelding drew the far outside post position in a field of 14. As is the case in the Juvenile Turf, don't be shocked if a longshot prevails as the morning-line favorite, Regally Ready, has won just one of his last three races.

The choice here is Great Attack for trainer Wesley Ward. The four-year-old colt drew a solid post position (five) and should sit right behind Rapport early on. If that filly doesn't handle the turf, look for Great Attack to inherit the lead and surprise the field at huge odds.

The Dirt Mile is a fantastic race but imagine how much better the Sprint would have been if this race was never created. Who wouldn't have loved to see Big Drama go up against The Factor and Trappe Shot.

The Factor should have the early lead but don't be surprised if Tapizar runs him down into the stretch. From there, look for Trappe Shot, Wilburn, and Caleb's Posse to make it a four-horse photo at the wire with Trappe Shot defeating the three-year-olds.

The Turf will showcase the European contingent of Await the Dawn, Midday, St Nicholas Abbey, Sarafina, and Sea Moon. The pick is Await the Dawn.

The Juvenile could be the best race of the day with undefeated Union Rags taking on Mine That Bird's brother Dullahan; the possible freak Hansen, who has won his two starts at Turfway Park by a combined 25 1/2-lengths; the Florida Stallion Series champion Fort Loudon (four-for-four with lasix); Royal Lodge Stakes winner Daddy Long Legs; and the two California standouts, Creative Cause and Drill.

The longshot choice is Alpha. The son of Bernardini won at first asking by six lengths going seven-furlongs at Saratoga and followed that up with a well- beaten, second-place finish behind Union Rags in the Champagne. It might be difficult to improve over five-lengths on Saturday but the well-bred two-year- old picks up Garrett Gomez, and with a better break from the gate, could turn the tables on the expected favorite.

As previously mentioned, there are a couple of horses searching for back-to- back Breeders' Cup victories but nothing compares to what Goldikova could accomplish in the Mile. She'll be looking for her fourth consecutive win in this event. Surprisingly, American-based horses have finished second in her previous three wins and two of them (Gio Ponti and Courageous Cat) are back at it here.

The play is another foreign-based horse - Byword.

A half-brother to multiple Grade I winner Proviso, Byword comes into the Mile off two straight wins, and even though Goldikova has beaten him twice, both of those races were run at nine-furlongs - one-furlong more than this race.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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