Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has solid field

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One mile, eight-furlongs, once around the track. Mile races are the cross-roads event in the thoroughbred world. The meeting of sprinters and distance runners.

The fifth edition of the $1 million Dirt Mile, and the second time at Churchill Downs, has a highly competitive field of nine. With the layout at the historic track the race will be a one-turn event. Last year at the Twin Spires, Dakota Phone went from last to first to post a head victory over pacesetter Morning Line in a time of 1:35.29 on a fast track.

This year's race has three fewer horses than last year with four-year-old Trappe Shot the 3-1 program favorite. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the chestnut colt drew the far outside post with John Velazquez riding.

Trappe Shot has won two of four starts this year, but is coming off a fourth in the Vosburgh at Belmont Park after losing by a nose in the Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga. His wins were in a pair of spring stakes at Belmont Park, True North Handicap and Waldoboro Stakes.

Despite his last two starts Trappe Shot got the favorite's role for the Dirt Mile due to his ability to stay just off the pace and fire at the right time.

"The Factor, Shackleford and Tapizar are 1, 2 and 3, so they're going to have to go, so we might get back further stalking them. We might be 10-lengths back if they go a half in 44 (seconds). You never know," McLaughlin said. "It's a great post position because we don't have to be involved in all of that. We're out in the clear."

The Factor and Shackleford, both three-year-olds, are co-second picks at 7-2.

The Factor is trained by Bob Baffert and will have Martin Garcia in the saddle and carry three pounds less than the favorite as will all three-year-olds.

The gray colt was sidelined after losing the Arkansas Derby as the 4-5 favorite. It was discovered that he had a hairline fracture following the race. He returned in August to win the Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar and was fourth in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita.

Preakness Stakes champ Shackleford will be ridden by Jesus Castanon for trainer Dale Romans. The chestnut colt was fifth in the Belmont Stakes with a strong second to Coil in the Haskell. He faded to eighth in the Travers, but came in second to Wilburn in the Indiana Derby.

"We hadn't done much with him since the Indiana Derby and wanted to give him a good work," the trainer noted after a workout. "I've never had a horse run bad after working in 58. You just can't make a horse work like that.

"I can't see anything happening other than The Factor going right for the lead and we'll sit just behind him. And, if Tapizar wants to join him, we'll be happy to sit third. He's not a horse that needs the lead. He'll listen to his rider."

The 4-1 fourth pick is Indiana Derby winner Wilburn owned by Stonestreet Stables and trained by Steve Asmussen. The three-year-old colt is working on a three-race win streak, which includes the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx Racing.

"Julien (jockey Leparoux) got a dream trip in the Indiana Derby," Asmussen said. "The door was open for him, but he definitely stormed through it. You can get a good trip, but he looked good with the good trip. I like the acceleration he showed.

"I think the trip is extremely important with him. He's a great big horse, bit, tall and leggy. His confidence is exactly where you'd want it to be coming into a race like this, so we feel good about it."

Wilburn will again have Leparoux in the saddle and break from post five.

Another three-year-old entered in the Dirt Mile is Caleb's Posse who ran down Uncle Mo to win the King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga. The colt is 5-1 in the program and will start from post eight with Rajiv Maragh.

Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, Caleb's Posse won the Amsterdam at Saratoga, but came in third in the Indiana Derby last time out.

"It's hard to say why he didn't run a little better, but it's not surprising that we ran third in a race like that," Von Hemel said. "I thought the winner ran a good race, he got through on the rail, but I don't think anyone was going to beat him (Wilburn) that day. Our horse just kind of ran even. It wasn't outstanding, but the main thing for us was the timing and straight three-year-olds. It was a way for us to get here.

"Because the Dirt Mile was the more likely spot for us, we decided to use the Indiana Derby as a prep," Von Hemel said. "We were stabled in Chicago (Arlington Park), so there wasn't a lot of travel for us. We figured we'd pop over to Indiana and then to Kentucky. We didn't want to have to make another trip back East."

At 12-1 is the well traveled Irrefutable. The five-year-old is trained by Baffert and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post six. The gray horse has started on five different tracks this year, including Churchill Downs.

He won a six-furlong allowance race in Louisville on May 4 and two months later moved into stakes company with a second in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder.

"We put him in and we know he's a longshot, but he ran well here last spring, and he ran his best race Beyer-wise here as well," Baffert remarked.

The horse was sixth in a pair of stakes before running second in the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita to put him into the Dirt Mile.

"In the Ancient Title we just let him break and come from off the pace and it worked out; he ran a big race," Baffert said. "He'll be coming at the end."

At 15-1 is 2010 Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town. The five-year-old has Cornelio Velasquez riding for trainer Barclay Tagg of Funny Cide fame. The chestnut horse will go for his initial win this year from post seven.

The speedy Tapizar, as mentioned earlier, has the three hole and is 20-1 in the program with Garrett Gomez up for Steve Asmussen. In January the three- year-old won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and is coming off an optional claiming victory.

At 30-1 San Diego Handicap winner Tres Borrachos is the longest shot in the morning-line. He followed his win at Del Mar with a sixth in the Pacific Classic and a fifth in the Goodwood. Trained by Marty Jones, the gelding will break from post four with Joel Rosario riding.

There's more than enough speed in the Dirt Mile to give the stalkers and late runners a chance to pounce down the stretch. A good price can be had by all.

Morning-line favorite Trappe Shot over Jersey Town and Irrefutable is the play for Saturday.

Jazzsporta Horseracing Betting News

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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