Mets to wrap up long trip with matinee against Nats

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Apparently, winning four straight games just isn't the Washington Nationals' thing.

After failing to win more than three games in a row for the seventh time this season, Washington instead seeks a series victory over the New York Mets in today's finale of a three-game set at Nationals Park.

The Nationals were stifled in their attempt to win a fourth straight game by Mets starter Dillon Gee, who was making his major league debut in the place of the injured Johan Santana (pectoral strain). The 24-year-old was outstanding, carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning before eventually yielding one run on two hits over seven frames.

Gee also drove in a run for the Mets, who got a three-run homer from Ike Davis to win for just the third time in nine contests on a 10-game road trip that wraps up this afternoon.

"That's been the joke with me all season in Triple-A. I think I had 20- something [at-bats] and not one hit, so it was nice to get one here," Gee said.

New York picked up the win despite third baseman David Wright being a late scratch due to a bruised left finger suffered during a stolen-base attempt on Monday. The former All-Star is day-to-day, while teammate Jose Reyes sat out his 11th consecutive game because of a right oblique strain.

Willie Harris' leadoff homer in the sixth frame spoiled Gee's no-hit bid and represented the lone run for the Nationals. Cuban Yuneski Maya, also making his MLB debut, allowed four runs over five innings to take the loss, though he did retire 11 of the final 12 batters he faced.

"The third inning, fourth inning, fifth inning, he got much better location with his breaking ball and pitched effectively a little more," said Nationals manager Jim Riggleman of Maya. "He just got better as it went along."

Today's finale will feature a pair of 35-year-olds in the Mets' R.A. Dickey and Livan Hernandez of the Nats, and both hurlers are coming off rough outings.

Dickey has allowed 13 runs over his last three starts and a season-high seven of those came in Friday's loss in Chicago, the knuckleballer's first setback since Aug. 8. Dickey fell to 9-6 with a 2.91 earned run average on the season.

The right-hander owns a pair of no-decisions against Washington this year despite allowing only two earned runs in 13 frames of work, and is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA lifetime against the Nationals.

Hernandez, meanwhile, is 1-2 over his last three starts and has yielded 20 runs over that time. Pitching on Friday for the first time since signing a one-year contract extension on Aug. 29, the righty was drilled for eight runs -- tying a season high -- over just 4 1/3 innings of work.

Hernandez, who is 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA this year, has performed well versus the Mets this year, going 1-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three starts. The veteran has faced the club 35 times in his career and is 12-13 with a 4.29 ERA.

The Nationals have won eight of 14 versus the Mets this year, with the teams splitting eight games in Washington.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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